[Discussion] Does anyone know if anyone is seriously discussing post singularity events?

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[Discussion] Does anyone know if anyone is seriously discussing post singularity events?
The world after the singularity will be so radically changed that I think it is a fascinating topic given that the singularity could go so many different ways or maybe only a few different ways to one of sufficient intelligence.

Often it seems that the more you know and understand the more your options are limited if you have an ethical structure. Such as if you were gifted with a long term viewpoint it would seem that caring for the environment would become a top priority rather than a medium priority and possibly nurturing other life forms to be uplifted to sentience along with preventing extinction of useful species might seem more important than increasing computational power.

2 votes by tyrhaynes on 2008-03-05 8 comments

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wal 2 votes Thursday, March 06, 2008 at 12:15 AM

It's hard enough trying to predict what's going to happen 20 years from now, let alone post Singularity. The only discussion I'm aware of is Kurzweil's predictions of what's going to happen in about a 100 years from now, and admittedly it's more fiction than predictions. He basically predicts that we'll all "upload" and have our consciousness simulated in computers and live in a virtual world, and can manifest ourselves into physical bodies at will when we feel like it.

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tyrhaynes 1 votes Thursday, March 06, 2008 at 12:38 AM

So nothing serious barring some "quality" science/speculative fiction.

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siggi 2 votes Thursday, March 06, 2008 at 3:22 AM

There is a whole discipline which thinks about this topic. It can be found under "physical eschatology". Also the 4 stages according to Kardashev are a good reference point for thinking about developments after a hypothetical singularity. In a frame like this a singularity isn´t more than a little step.

Many links around post-singularity and physical eschatology can be found in my delicious account at http://del.icio.us/siggiB/

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wal 1 votes Thursday, March 06, 2008 at 12:58 AM

An interesting way to think about post-Singularity is to look back and compare our lives today with how it was in the past. So, if the Singularity is around, say, 2040 (32 years from now), so let's look back 32 years at the year 1976 and compare it to today. If the exponential curve continues at the same rate, then CPU density grows by a multiple of 1M in 30 years (doubling every 1.5 years). I'm guessing we do get about a million times more processing per dollar today than 30 years ago. And, by 2040, we should get a million times that.

If you had told someone in 1976 that computers will be a million times faster by 2008, he'd have probably expected a lot more change than what had actually happened. With that argument, I expect that when the Singularity happens, it won't be as crazy or mind boggling as we now expect it to be. The progress will happen slowly, and we'll get used to it as it happens. It'll definitely be an exciting ride, though.

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daniel_yokomizo 1 votes Thursday, March 06, 2008 at 6:21 AM

By similar analogy, we can predict the year 2000 by comparing the year 1 to the year 1000. Even comparing 1800 to 1900 would result in a much more primitive year 2000.
Also that mythical someone in 1976 would probably imagine a future a la Jetsons, not something really well thought. It's very hard to quantify what a million times faster mean, few can properly access what will be able to be done with that processing power. But I would bet a large amount of money that a survey taken on 1976 would never predict the internet, ubiquitous cell phone usage, the advances in medicine, and such (because they would use comic book ideas like super giant computers, humanoid robots, a pill to cure all illnesses). Can you imagine what to do when the computing power available to google today is going to fit inside your hands? Saying not much progress happened between now and then is failing to realize that much predictions were way off and not properly acknowledging today's technology.

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wal 1 votes Thursday, March 06, 2008 at 3:17 PM

> By similar analogy, we can predict the year 2000 by comparing
> the year 1 to the year 1000. Even comparing 1800 to 1900 would
> result in a much more primitive year 2000.

I won't go that far. I'd use this as a very rough estimate, and I wouldn't use it for more than 30 years or so. And even then, it's just a mental exercise to give you a starting point.

> because they would use comic book ideas like super giant
> computers, humanoid robots, a pill to cure all illnesses)

That's exactly my point. Today I read about predictions such as "uploading" and living in a virtual world and that computers will have avatars that look and behave human and things like that. However, I think that in 2040, things will look a little more "normal" than what the extreme predictions expect (although they will be considered crazy compared to today). For example, we'll have computers that are a million times faster, but we'll still struggle with slow response times at occasions when using our wrist supercomputers (just like we do today with computers that are a million times faster than 30 years ago). I don't think we'll upload to virtual worlds, and I think we'll still prefer to deal with computers that are designed to be suitable for the job rather than looking human. And things like that. My point is that, as the changes happen gradually, by the time we hit the Singularity, it will pass largely unnoticed just like the recent DARPA urban challenge went unnoticed by most people.

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siggi 1 votes Thursday, March 06, 2008 at 3:13 AM

[Deleted by the author.]

jeriaska 1 votes Thursday, March 06, 2008 at 12:36 AM

Presumably radical superintelligence has emerged and the significance of events taking place at that time is complex beyond human comprehension, which kind of leads me to assume that the only way to discuss the world after the singularity is through interpretative dance.

One could argue that uplifting other life forms could be a form of increasing computational power if you buy the brains-as-computation analogy. The distinction disappears once a bonobo thanks you for their implant.